2015 June Business Climate
June Retail Sales
In early July, Hearth & Home faxed a survey to 2,500 specialty retailers of hearth, barbecue and patio products asking them to compare June 2015 sales to June 2014. The accompanying charts and selected comments are from the 219 useable returns.
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Weather Report |
Consumer Confidence |
Stock Watch |
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In June, only 18 percent of retailers of Spas posted a down month compared to June 2014. For Patio, that figure was 20 percent, and it was 25 percent for Barbecue and 31 percent for Hearth. |
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13 MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAILER SALES |
It's understandable that sales of Hearth products were up only three percent in June; that's never a great month for Hearth sales. But it's very surprising that Barbecue products are showing rather anemic growth in the first two quarters of the year.
Retailer Comments
Northeast
Connecticut: (Hearth, BBQ) “Terrible June, worst in five years. Slow foot traffic, consumers seem very worried about spending! I'm very concerned with the economy and another recession. Hope third quarter is strong.”
Connecticut: (Hearth) “Not really sure what to expect this coming heating season. Moderate foot traffic, but sales are sluggish. Oil prices are down, which can be a factor, but those that do come in comment they don't want to go through another long, cold heating season with oil just the same. Wait and see.”
Maine: (Hearth) “We have deep concerns about the future sales of wood and pellet appliances, given the growing popularity of pellet boilers and heat pumps in combination with the expected dip in fuel prices at summer's end. This is the fourth month in a row that we are posting near 50 percent negative numbers! We're very uneasy about the upcoming season here in the Northeast!”
Maine: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Overall sales are up over last year, but June sales lagged unexplainably.”
New Jersey: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Had a great June. Hope it continues into July.”
New York: (BBQ, Spas) “June has been a continuation of sleepy buyers from April and May. There are shorter research-to-buy cycles.”
New York: (Hearth) “We offer product discounts in the summer months and a few customers take advantage.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Floor traffic was a little off along with sales, typical for this time of year. Grill islands and barbecue products not doing too well so far, but that was June. Let's see what July brings.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, BBQ) “Low oil and gas prices are having a serious impact on pellet stove interest. New MSRP prices are not helping either on gas products.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Patio) “Hearth high-end products are selling best. Decorative faces with color are hot!”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Customers are afraid to buy pellet stoves after two years of short supply of fuel, and oil is cheap so no urgency.”
Weather Report
For the following weather charts, the numbers for each state reflect the temperature ranking for the period since records began in 1895.
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In what is becoming a familiar pattern, four New England states experienced Below Average temperatures in June, while five of the western states posted record warmth. |
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For the three-month period from April to June, record warmth was felt at the extremities of the Continental U.S., in Florida and Washington. |
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South
Arkansas: (Hearth) “Another slow month due to rain and hot temps.”
North Carolina: (Hearth) “Record humidity and heat. I'm sure everyone is down at the beach having a blast. We are working on a new 15,000 sq. ft. showroom to open in September, we hope, or I would be at the shore myself.”
Oklahoma: (Hearth, BBQ) “Lots of rain but still had a good month.”
Tennessee: (Hearth, BBQ) “Very pleased with June sales, especially after a very good May. The May/June combo was the best ever. Just hope the bad news of bankrupting cities, counties and countries doesn't start another downward trend. When are they going to realize you cannot borrow your way out of debt?”
Texas: (Hearth, BBQ) “There's a rebound in new construction sales as the wet spring delayed a lot of new home starts. It's already my best year for high-end, EPA, zero-clearance wood fireplaces and direct-vent gas fireplaces. Wood stoves and pellet stoves are holding steady.”
Texas: (Hearth) “Overall sales are up 51 percent.”
Virginia: (Hearth, BBQ) “Very good barbecue grill month.”
Virginia: (Hearth, BBQ) “Still seeing quite a bit of interest and traffic for this time of year.”
Midwest
Iowa: (Hearth) “June was just dead!”
Illinois: (Patio, BBQ) “Although we didn't hit our projections, we feel good about our sales. June was the 11th wettest on record and we only had two in a row where we didn't receive rain. It was also way below average for temps. That's not really weather that gets people excited about sitting on the patio.”
Indiana: (Hearth, BBQ) “Very slow sales. Not many grill sales this spring. Should pick up when Big Boxes sell through their China world inventory.”
Missouri: (Hearth, BBQ) “While June sales were up over 2014, they were sluggish compared to what we have waiting on the horizon. We spent over half the month not doing anything due to all of the rain. Houses are on hold and even remodels/repairs are backlogging our schedule. July has started the same way, meaning August will be extremely busy unless it dries up quickly. The good news is that I'm still operating in the black for the year.”
Ohio: (Hearth, BBQ) “It's been an odd barbecue sales season. The gas grills we're used to selling large quantities of are not selling well at all. However, the high-end, stainless-steel, built-in grills are doing much better than normal. Of course, Big Green Eggs always sell.”
Ohio: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Rainy weather is making it difficult. Third wettest June in history.”
Ohio: (Hearth) “Most of the increase was in new construction.”
Wisconsin: (Hearth, BBQ) “Our total sales for the year up to now just dropped below last year's total sales at this time. This month is down from last year and yet this is a very strong year. We are booked for work through most of the summer. We are actively seeking an additional full-time employee. However, we will not hire just anybody. We are looking for a long-term employee that we can train. The work is out there, however, at this point we just don't have adequate manpower to keep up.”
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A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
West
Arizona: (Hearth, BBQ) “Construction has picked up in the southeast part of metro Phoenix, and customers are buying higher-end grills instead of Chinese models. Year-to-date we're up 63 percent.”
California: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “We're thoroughly enjoying three new product lines: American Fyre Designs, Green Mountain Grills and Big Green Egg.”
California: (Hearth, BBQ, Spas) “Interesting that it's really hot outside and we are selling stoves. People are starting to think ahead.”
California: (Hearth, BBQ) “Average month overall.”
California: (Hearth) “It probably will be an evening-out through May-June-July, but the small contractor is building and buying. Sales more than doubled this year in June over last year.”
Colorado: (Hearth) “Customers are actually coming in with their credit cards and checkbooks to shop – SHOCKING! Business is picking up and we are feeling positive for a change.”
Oregon: (Hearth, BBQ) “Hottest June on record! Hearth sales are down 10 percent. It seems most people are still looking for the cheaper stove to put in and that is not who we are. Grill sales are on par with last year. It seems like Big Green Egg opens a new dealer in our area every year, and every four years or so they have a whoop! some dealer sold some product to Costco or Sam's Club.”
Washington: (Hearth, BBQ) “We had a record June! Remodels and custom homebuilding had our biggest dollar volume growth in fireplaces. However, our grill sales, specifically pellet grills, were our highest growth percentage.”
Canada
British Columbia: (Hearth) “With record hot weather in British Columbia this June, it was pleasantly surprising to see our numbers the same as last year.”
British Columbia: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “June started busy and built to a fantastic month; hotter weather slowed hot tub sales a little but everything else was way up! Shade products are big because of the great weather. I am loving it!”
British Columbia: (Patio, BBQ) “On the west coast of Canada, we are enjoying a phenomenal spring and summer, and sales have been very good all season.”
New Brunswick: “Finished with a similar volume to last year.”
Ontario: (Patio) “OK so far; consumers are positive.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “June was cool and wet, not patio weather.”
Ontario: (Hearth, BBQ) “Fireplace manufacturers have to do more to help out the dealers. When the stores are gone, only then will the manufacturers know what it costs to run a retail store. The manufacturers doing the most for the dealers will win most of the business. The others will lose market share and be left to builders and low-end housing projects.”
Ontario: (Patio, BBQ) “Selling entry level barbecue griddles is a great add-on for us and a good fit for our retail customer.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Well, at least it's warm here. Two months of flat sales in heating equipment. Wow, is it just me, or have a lot of the old school boys disappeared from retail? It seems a bit inexperienced out there all of a sudden. Cheers.”
Stock Watch
| COMPANY – EXCHANGE | SYMBOL | 52 WEEK | Week Ending | % CHANGE | MARKET CAPITALIZATION | ||||
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| High | Low | 29-May-15 | 26-Jun-15 | 4 Week | 26 Week | 52 Week | ($000,000) | ||
| HNI Corporation (a) | HNI | 57.74 | 34.62 | 48.49 | 53.20 | 9.7% | 3.2% | 36.6% | $2,240.0 |
| Pool Corporation (b) | POOL | 72.55 | 51.61 | 66.28 | 71.80 | 8.3% | 13.3% | 24.2% | $3,050.0 |
| Rentech (b)(e) | RTK | 2.50 | 0.99 | 1.18 | 1.13 | -4.2% | NA | NA | $236.4 |
| Restoration Hardware Holdings (a) | RH | 102.00 | 69.80 | 90.96 | 99.35 | 9.2% | 3.5% | 7.6% | $3,900.0 |
| Wayfair, Inc. (a)(c) | W | 39.43 | 16.74 | 29.89 | 38.18 | 27.7% | 88.0% | NA | $3,150.0 |
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(a) = New York Stock Exchange |
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