Twenty-fourteen was the year when the vast majority of hearth dealers got whole again. It was the year for which everyone had been waiting, as the extremely cold months of January, February and March stimulated consumer demand for hearth products – in particular, pellet stoves – such as had not been seen for years.

Looking back from January, it was clear that the year had been strong not only for pellet products, but also for cordwood and gas appliances. Generally, appliance manufacturers were behind just a bit in deliveries; the major problems of supply had to do with venting equipment and pellet fuel.

It has now been 36 months of consistent and positive month/year vs. month/year Hearth sales, culminating in what a number of retailers called “the best year” of their career – for some, that stretches back to the late ’70s.

Growth wasn’t as strong in the Barbecue, Spas and Patio categories. But both Barbecue and Spas have shown similar consistent and positive month/year vs. month/year sales.

A Warm Year

All is not rosy, however. Both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have labeled 2014 as the earth’s warmest year on record.

Here in the U.S., that was not the case – not even close. It was only the 34th warmest year on record, with the Midwestern states posting Below Normal and Much Below Normal numbers.

The 11 western states experienced a dramatically different year; all had Above Normal to Record Warmest years. That latter designation applies to California, Nevada and Arizona. Yep, all three had their warmest year since record keeping began in 1895.

Somehow, in warm weather a young (or old) man’s (or woman’s) thoughts just don’t turn to stoves or fireplaces.

Losing the Fear Factor

In mid-January, the price of a barrel of oil was $49 (a 50% decline), and the forecast was that it would be at only $55 by next January. Remember that it was the high price of oil that created the new hearth industry in the mid-’70s. Could the low-price of oil do just the opposite? We’re about to find out.

Saudi billionaire businessman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal recently stated that we will not see $100-a-barrel oil again. If this very astute investor is correct, the hearth industry will lose a strong consumer motivator – fear.

Huge Gains for Expo

If you’re a retailer considering attending the HPBExpo in Nashville in March, be aware that it will be a substantially larger show than in Salt Lake City last year. As of January 16 (with plenty of time remaining for non-committed manufacturers to sign up), the number of exhibiting companies was up 22 percent, which is the largest number since 2008. There are 77 first-time exhibitors, which is 37 percent more than last year.

If you’re a manufacturer considering attending, be aware that Buying Entities are up 69 percent over Salt Lake City and, after enjoying a banner sales year, they’ll be coming with wallets full and an optimistic outlook.

Nashville in 2015 will be the largest show in seven years. Be there!