2015 July Business Climate
July Retail Sales
In early August, Hearth & Home faxed a survey to 2,500 specialty retailers of hearth, barbecue and patio products, asking them to compare July 2015 sales to July 2014. The accompanying charts and selected comments are from the 198 useable returns.
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Weather Report |
Consumer Confidence |
Stock Watch |
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In July, 45 percent of Hearth dealers and 44 percent of Spa dealers were up over last year, whereas Patio and Barbecue dealers didn’t fare quite as well – only 29 percent of dealers in both industries posted positive numbers. |
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13 MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAILER SALES |
It’s like looking down a long and scary road. That was our first thought upon looking at the Hearth chart above. Let’s hope the positive seven percent in July signals a turnaround.
Retailer Comments
Northeast
Connecticut: (Hearth) “Very discouraging going into next heating season. Oil is playing a huge part, for sure, even with the long cold weather we had. Consumers are just not feeling the urgency they did last year. We’re hoping the extended tax credit that’s pending will be increased and motivate the fence sitters.”
Maine: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “July sales were down compared to last year. However, our service numbers are up due to keeping seasonal customers up and running.”
Massachusetts: (Patio) “Thank God the season is over!”
Massachusetts: (Hearth, BBQ) “Thank God for gas and new construction. The low price of oil means little traffic for July for wood and pellet. Service maintenance programs have our schedule pretty busy.”
Massachusetts: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “We had a great July selling specialty grills/outdoor kitchen products and fire pits. People came in ready to buy. As far as hearth products, we did a lot more gas products this July compared to last year. Can’t wait for the Tax Free weekend this month!”
New Hampshire: (Hearth, Patio) “The economy is getting stronger and we are seeing lots of support for local business and U.S. made products. This was our best season in 16 years of business!”
New Jersey: (Hearth, BBQ) “Starting to see people get ahead of the season.”
New Jersey: (Hearth, BBQ, Spas) “Continued strong sales growth in July. Fireplaces with a modern design are leading the way. Showroom traffic is picking up. There’s lots of interest in wood. Get ready now for what is to come!”
New York: (BBQ, Spas) “After a very strong June, traffic and sales slowed; both are still respectable, however.”
New York: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “Pellet sales have been slow going all summer. Our parking lot is filling up with pellets, like a village waiting for the explosion this fall!”
New York: (Hearth, BBQ) “We in the Northeast had a bad, cold winter last year and we feel our long-standing customers, and some new ones, are gearing up and planning ahead for the winter of 2015.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Floor traffic was steady but customers are just not in a buying mood. On the bright side, service is up about 48 percent.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, BBQ) “Strong month for gas fireplaces and inserts due to new homes and upgrades. Pellet fuel sales are strong, but not pellet stoves. Oil is too cheap!”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, BBQ) “Pellet supply is tight.”
Vermont: (Patio, BBQ) “Feels good!”
Weather Report
For the following weather charts, the numbers for each state reflect the temperature ranking for the period since records began in 1895.
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July was a cool month in most of the country, with only Florida, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi and Washington reporting Much Above Average temperatures. |
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Looking at the three-month period of May, June and July, we see a much warmer situation. Not one state experienced Below Normal temperatures; only 15 states reported Near Normal temperatures, and the rest of the country experienced Above Normal, Much Above Normal, and Record Warmest (Oregon and Washington). |
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South
Arkansas: (Hearth) “Another slow month due to excessive heat. Very little floor traffic.”
North Carolina: (Hearth) “Always wish I could take off during the month of July.”
Oklahoma: (Hearth, BBQ) “Hot!! Less foot traffic in July.” Tennessee: (Hearth, BBQ) “Down from 2014. Had to be the weather. It was really hot in 2015 compared to a mild July 2014. Couldn’t be our fault, as we have Einstein traits when it comes to promotion and advertising. (RIGHT!).”
Tennessee: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “It’s a see-saw. June was down, July was up. Looking at the two combined it’s about the same from 2014 to 2015. But in the what-have-you-done-lately environment we are in, we have done well lately. Just have to keep it up.”
Virginia: (Hearth, BBQ) “Very slow until the last 10 days then it just took off. Cha-ching $$.”
Midwest
Illinois: (Patio, BBQ) “The lack of summer weather finally caught up. One week was way off and we just couldn’t catch back up.” Indiana: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Slow month.”
Iowa: (Hearth, Patio) “June and July were typically the slowest months for hearth appliances. But sales have been brisk beginning in mid-July for the past five years. This year, July sales have been similar to September!”
Michigan: (Patio, BBQ) “July has been a quiet month in terms of traffic. Higher individual sales were our only saving grace.” Michigan: (Spas) “July was another mind-blowing month. There was a cool start weather-wise. No spa buyers, not even tire kickers or hopeful lottery winners. Then the temperature hit the 90s and our spa showroom is rocking. We did better in three days than during the rest of the month, and with absolutely no advertising. Who buys a hot tub when it’s so hot you can’t breathe?”
Missouri: (Hearth, BBQ) “Continued strong hearth sales. Barbecue had been strong all year until July when it dropped off.”
Ohio: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “May and June were the wettest on record. July was hot! Can’t win for trying. Last winter has prompted people to get off their butts.”
Ohio: (Hearth, BBQ) “We caught up to last year’s grill numbers with a better July. We’re not setting the world on fire but also not complaining. Already seeing nice gas hearth sales as the early birds start to get ready for the fall.”
Wisconsin: (Hearth, BBQ) “Looking for another installer/tech.” Wisconsin: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “July has been hot and cold. Some weeks are very quiet and the next super busy. Looks like it may be an early fall!”
Wisconsin: (Hearth, BBQ) “We are seeing our gas units in greater demand as propane costs go down.”
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A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
West
Alaska: (Hearth, BBQ) “New construction.”
Arizona: (Hearth, BBQ) “Our competitors are sending their customers to us for technical and hard to find products in stock. I also think our customer service is being recognized because referrals are huge.”
California: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Though California temperatures are up, new construction and remodels are up.”
California: (Hearth, BBQ) “July started off slow but picked up dramatically as the month progressed. We are happy to see our old friends, the contractors, still buying during the dog days of summer.”
California: (Hearth) “Looking ahead, we’re very optimistic.”
Idaho: (Hearth, BBQ) “We had great spring and summer sales even with record heat.”
Nevada: (Hearth, BBQ) “Sales are down this season.”
Oregon: (Hearth) “Still very, very slow.”
Utah: (Patio, Spas) “Nice weather in July.”
Washington: (Hearth, BBQ) “For July, barbecue sales were actually down 10 percent, but outdoor fire pits and burner components are up 41 percent.”
Washington: (Hearth, BBQ) “July picked up where June left off. Strong sales in grills and new construction/remodeling drove growth in hearth. Now if it will only cool down a little this fall. This could be a banner year.”
Washington: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “Wow!”
Canada
British Columbia: (Patio, BBQ) “July sales were down 14 percent. Since our spring was fabulous and long, I suspect the huge increase that we had in spring was from our normal summer sales. Looks like we had a shift in our sales and got our spring and summer sales in the spring.”
British Columbia: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “July started slow and finished with a bang. Sales are up across the board, and hot tubs and barbecues are leading the charge. Hearth is starting to take off already; it’s going to be a great year!!”
Manitoba: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “The fact that sales are good and expenses are lower, means a great bottom line.”
Ontario: (Patio) “Up in May, down in June and July? It must be the general economy, or consumer confidence. There’s no direction from the Feds, either in the U.S. or Canada.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “We could not offer a discount on our high-end patio/casual furniture because of our weak dollar. It’s only worth 75 cents! Politicians can do you in.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “The weather just went south on us, so hopefully it will rebound and give us a better year.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Another down month. Just when we thought the living was coming back, away we go again. Being a hearth shop retailer is a real life experience. Month-to-month sales graphs look like a roller coaster. Maybe I’ll open another store; I’ve heard Greece has openings for experienced retailers. “Some reps think opening new dealers in my area is a solution to the problem; others believe bullying the retailer will post results. Thanks for all the support guys! After almost 40 years of ups and downs, maybe it’s time to turn this whole industry over to a new generation and let young money (or the lack of it) take over – like so many others in my age bracket have already done.”
Quebec: (Hearth, BBQ) “Wood and gas stove sales are up.”
Quebec: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “No customers in our store due to bad weather and low dollars.”
Stock Watch
| COMPANY – EXCHANGE | SYMBOL | 52 WEEK | Week Ending | % CHANGE | MARKET CAPITALIZATION | ||||
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| High | Low | 02-July-15 | 31-July-15 | 4 Week | 26 Week | 52 Week | ($000,000) | ||
| HNI Corporation (a) | HNI | 57.74 | 34.75 | 50.36 | 49.59 | -1.5% | 0.7% | 41.4% | $2,150.0 |
| Pool Corporation (b) | POOL | 72.85 | 51.61 | 69.86 | 70.42 | 0.8% | 13.2% | 28.9% | $3,000.0 |
| Rentech (b)(e) | RTK | 2.29 | 0.55 | 1.03 | 0.76 | -26.1% | -36.6% | NA | $236.4 |
| Restoration Hardware Holdings (a) | RH | 105.98 | 69.80 | 97.51 | 101.46 | 4.1% | 15.9% | 23.5% | $3,980.0 |
| Wayfair, Inc. (a)(c) | W | 40.51 | 16.74 | 37.70 | 37.31 | -1.0% | 90.7% | NA | $3,050.0 |
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(a) = New York Stock Exchange |
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