2015 January Business Climate
January Retail Sales
In early February, Hearth & Home faxed a survey to 2,500 specialty retailers of hearth, barbecue and patio products, asking them to compare January 2015 sales to January 2014. The accompanying charts and selected comments are from the 232 useable returns.
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Weather Report |
Consumer Confidence |
Stock Watch |
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Slightly better than half of responding Hearth dealers had a better January this year than in the prior year; 44 percent of Spa/Hot Tub dealers said the same, while only 20 percent and 23 percent of Patio and Barbecue dealers, respectively, posted a better January in 2015. |
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13 MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAILER SALES |
In January, Spa/Hot Tub sales were up 16 percent over the same period in 2014. That was followed by sales of Barbecues at seven percent growth, Hearth products at six percent, and Patio products at a minus one percent.
Retailer Comments
Northeast
Connecticut: (Hearth) “We’re surprised sales are as good as they are considering oil prices are half of what they were this time last year, although cold weather may be the reason. In any event, we’re happy with the results. Cold weather means $$$$$.”
Maine: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Snow removal costs are up. Demand for pellet stove service is up over last year.” Massachusetts: (Hearth) “Sales have stayed strong going into the new year. We are excited for 2015!”
New Jersey: (Hearth, Patio) “Down from 2014. Still was very good. I guess January 2014 was exceptional. Showroom steady and customers are buying in all categories.”
New York: (Hearth, BBQ, Spas) “Starting to see the low price of fuel taking its toll on alternate heating products.”
New York: (Hearth) “The (lack of) pellet supply is killing our reputation.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth) “Gas is strong but lack of wood pellets and low oil prices will hurt next year’s sales. When Marcellus Gas no longer needs pellets, and stove sales are down next year, they will beg us like we begged this year. Justice will prevail!”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Fireplace sales for new construction will be better in the first quarter then in the last five years. PELLETS ARE STILL SCARCE.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “January usually starts out slow due to holiday credit card shock, but not this year. By the tenth of January we were booked to the middle of February. Pellet fuel is a major pain in the a**. Every delivery was two-to-three weeks late and the mills just don’t care. They just say, ‘If you don’t want them, we have other people who do!’”
Weather Report
For the following weather charts, the numbers for each state reflect the temperature ranking for the period since records began in 1895.
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Sixteen, primarily western, states had Above Normal to Much Above Normal temperatures in January, while the area from Ohio to Maine, and Texas and Louisiana, experienced Below Normal temperatures. |
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The period from November 2014 to January 2015 was the Record Warmest in California, while surrounding states Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Arizona experienced Much Above Normal temperatures. |
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South
Arkansas: (Hearth) “Strong wood and vent-free gas sales despite warm weather. Strange.” Louisiana: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Sales were down for January 2015. Not sure why, other than the fact that Mardi Gras is early this year. Lots of money gets directed to the occasion or trips out of town.”
Oklahoma: (Hearth) “Glad holidays are over! Customers did not have Xmas spirit and as a result neither did I.”
South Carolina: (Patio, BBQ) “January is normally very slow. The winter here in South Carolina has been mild so far, which has helped. We hope this is a very good sign for 2015. January 2014 was cold here.”
North Carolina: (Hearth) “December being only an 18-day month with all the Happy Holiday festivities going on was a GREAT month for us. January was GREAT as well. I can only hope the rest of the year is this good.”
Texas: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “We’re just blessed to live in TEXAS! Remember – you can pick your nose and your friends but not where you’re born! (Bet you won’t print that!)” Ed. Note: You’re both crude and wrong.
Virginia: (Hearth, BBQ) “Very good month.”
Midwest
Michigan: (Spas) “42 years in retailing. I’ve discarded my crystal ball. Better than average January weather. Auto business best in years. Auto workers getting nice bonuses. I’m thinking about getting into the tire business. Going home to think about it. Dollars not crossing the sales desk. Flat 2015 January start. Bring on the sun and heat.”
Missouri: (Hearth, BBQ) “Strong heating sales despite the mild weather.”
Ohio: (Hearth, BBQ) “Gas hearth products are still strong. Large remodeling projects are the hot items at the moment.” Wisconsin: (Hearth) “January 2014 through January 2015 sales up 11 percent, but momentum (jobs in progress) not as strong. Expect good year in 2015 but not phenomenal year like 2014 was.”
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A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
West
Arizona: (Hearth) “Where’s all the snow?”
California: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “We’re pretty pleased, and now hoping that it continues!”
California: (Hearth) “We need rain!”
California: (Hearth, BBQ, Spas) “With the last two years being mild winters, our sales have suffered on hearth products.”
California: (Hearth, BBQ) “Last year in our area it was 80 degrees in January. It never really got cold again! This year it has been cooler and the sales increase is due in part to the weather. There have been more remodels this year and the zero-clearance sales increase has been another factor pushing sales up.”
Hawaii: (Patio) “Best January in five years. More customers and higher average sales. Who knows why?”
Idaho: (Hearth) “This has been the best month we have had in our 20-year history. Smaller average sales than normal but a much higher quantity.”
Washington: (Hearth) “Twenty percent up from last year.”
Canada
British Columbia: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “Overall January sales are up 80 percent year-over-year. Spring has come early. Barbecues, fire pits and patio furniture are already starting to move.”
British Columbia: (Hearth, BBQ) “Wow. We are off to a great start. Strong sales to start off the New Year.”
British Columbia: (Patio, BBQ) “Our January sales have continued to grow for the past four years. We are happy with the off-season pricing that we offer and off-season pricing on deluxe set-up service (assemble and deliver to the patio, not just on the curb for barbecues, fire tables, patio furniture and umbrellas). A lot of customers are taking advantage of this service. “Our selection is also fantastic at this time of the year as most of our 2015 booking orders are now in our warehouse and we have the new 2015 barbecues in stock that the customer wants. We also give a lot more time to the customer as the customer count is very manageable, not like a zoo in the spring and summer seasons.”
New Brunswick: (Hearth, BBQ) “January was a good month compared to the last few years. Kept installers busy all month and the showroom had good traffic. Three feet of snow and -20 degrees. Gotta love it!”
Ontario: (Hearth, BBQ) “Very slow January (down from 2014). Don’t really know how to read that trend.”
Ontario: (BBQ) “We haven’t had a lot of snow in Southwest Ontario this year. No snow equals better than expected barbecue sales. We have to remember that a 50 percent increase in January only represents a few units.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Typical January, cold and snowy. People paying for Christmas.”
Ontario: (Hearth, BBQ) “December sales were slow as expected. Primarily hearth accessories.”
Ontario: (Hearth, BBQ) “Up over last year. Could have been better if the bigger stores had booked more pellet fuel. Poor planning on their part. Slowed stove sales, but just a bit – can’t complain about another month when you can sell all you can get.”
Ontario: (Patio, BBQ) “It’s cold and sales at this time are in the toilet. We sell Christmas and seasonal stuff so that is where the action is when it’s cold.”
Stock Watch
| COMPANY – EXCHANGE | SYMBOL | 52 WEEK | Week Ending | % CHANGE | MARKET CAPITALIZATION | ||||
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| High | Low | 02-Jan-15 | 30-Jan-15 | 4 Week | 26 Week | 52 Week | ($000,000) | ||
| HNI Corporation (a) | HNI | 52.90 | 31.00 | 50.50 | 49.25 | -2.5% | 40.4% | 43.5% | $2,193.0 |
| Pool Corporation (b) | POOL | 65.44 | 51.61 | 63.08 | 62.21 | -1.4% | 13.9% | 14.8% | $2,700.0 |
| Restoration Hardware Holdings (a) | RH | 100.66 | 54.61 | 95.14 | 87.53 | -8.0% | 6.6% | 54.3% | $3,460.0 |
| Wayfair, Inc. (a)(c) | W | 39.43 | 16.74 | 20.78 | 19.56 | -5.9% | NA | NA | $1,620.0 |
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(a) = New York Stock Exchange |
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