2015 September Business Climate
September Retail Sales
In early October, Hearth & Home faxed a survey to 2,500 specialty retailers of hearth, barbecue and patio products, asking them to compare September 2015 sales to September 2014. The accompanying charts and selected comments are from the 217 useable returns.
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Weather Report |
Consumer Confidence |
Stock Watch |
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In September, 45 percent of Hearth dealers and 44 percent of Spa dealers were up over last year, whereas Patio and Barbecue dealers didn’t fare quite as well – only 29 percent of dealers in both industries posted positive numbers. |
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13 MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAILER SALES |
It’s like looking down a long and scary road. That was our first thought upon looking at the Hearth chart above. Let’s hope the positive seven percent in September signals a turnaround.
Retailer Comments
Northeast
Connecticut: (Hearth) “Lots of foot traffic and things picking up since it got cooler. September was too warm. Not sure what to expect with high pellet and wood prices and low oil prices.”
Delaware: (Hearth) “September 2014 was a super month. We had more stoves sold in September 2015, but not all got installed and picked up so it is a little skewed.”
Maine: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Pellet stove sales have lagged over last year likely due to the low cost of number two heating oil.”
Maine: (Hearth) “Sales this month are the lowest of the last 10 years.”
Maine: (Hearth) “Losing sales to heat pumps and low heating oil prices! Haven’t had enough sales to stash away savings for the Spring/Summer season. The future sales forecast looks very bleak for us here in the Northeast!”
Massachusetts: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “It seems like the great weather we had in September somewhat delayed the usual buying of hearth products. We didn’t see a big change in buying from last year. However, people were thinking ahead on service calls after the bad winter we had.”
New Hampshire: (Hearth, BBQ) “Sluggish at the start; it got better as it turned a little colder, but we don’t see the sense of urgency to buy because of low oil and propane costs.”
New Jersey: (Hearth, BBQ) “Waiting on cold weather!”
New York: (Hearth, Spas) “Hearth sales are still very steady, even with great weather and low gas prices.”
New York: (Hearth) “Our customers must read the Farmer’s almanac, as they seem to think we will have a cold winter. That said, our stove, stove parts and pipe sales are up a little over 10 percent. Bless the Almanac.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, BBQ) “Gas is this years’ rush. Pellet prices, their availability, plus price increases on stoves, will make people stick with cheap oil.”
Weather Report
For the following weather charts, the numbers for each state reflect the temperature ranking for the period since records began in 1895.
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Nine states (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah) experienced a Record Warmest September. |
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Maine, Connecticut and Rhode Island experienced a Record Warmest period from July–September, while 16 other states and the District of Columbia experienced temperatures that were Much Above Normal. |
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Only Arkansas experienced precipitation that was Much Below Normal; the rest of the country was fairly normal. |
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South
Arkansas: (Hearth) “Not a bad month for wood retail. Still too warm to get customers excited about buying.”
Florida: (Patio) “Where did all the customers go?”
North Carolina: (Hearth) “Would have been better if the Congress would stop scaring consumers with a government shutdown. I can predict each slowdown in our business by when they start publicizing those rumors on TV news. It’s too bad that people in power increase their wealth during times when so many tied to residential construction and the industries allied with it are suffering.”
Oklahoma: (Hearth) “Just waiting for cold weather.”
Tennessee: (Hearth, BBQ) “It was a really good August and September. If we get some cool temps early this fall, it could be a great year.”
Texas: (Hearth, BBQ, Spa) “It seems like as soon as high school football games start, some switch is thrown somewhere and people decide it’s time to start buying stoves. God bless them, every one!”
Virginia: (Hearth, BBQ) “Lots and lots of traffic and interest.”
Midwest
Illinois: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Weather was very nice in September which reduced cash-and-carry sales. However, our sales of non-completed fireplaces are up, which will be represented in a strong October. Patio and barbecue are down, which represent the trend in our industry that supports the mass merchandisers and specialty mass.”
Iowa: (Hearth, BBQ) “Not only less traffic, but consumers are deciding not to spend or buy the lowest-priced product and service.”
Michigan: (Hearth, Spas) “No thanks to the warmest September on record, our stove season is yet to gain traction. We’re hoping for typical fall weather to arrive soon.”
Michigan: (Hearth, BBQ) “Traffic is busy. Fall nights are cool. Fall advertising helps. Sales help. We are three weeks out.”
Michigan: (Spas) “Again, Mother Nature strikes the first three weeks of September with a heat wave. It set a couple of records. We’ve had above average floor traffic for hot tubs. We have great financing programs, better than average sales discounts and dynamite presentations. Our best closer is shaking his head. Our follow-up program indicates they didn’t buy elsewhere. Hopefully they’ll be back now that it’s cooled down. You figure.”
Michigan: (Hearth) “The low propane cost is killing stove sales, especially pellet stoves. Wood stoves are down slightly, gas is up a bit. The summer-like weather didn’t help either. Hoping cooler weather will boost traffic.”
Michigan: (Patio, BBQ) “Most of our cottage/vacation homeowners have gone home for the season. The remaining clientele have just been in to take advantage of end of season discounts.”
Ohio: (Hearth, BBQ) “Strong month for hearth sales, but we just missed out on beating last year’s record pace. We’re selling more direct-vent inserts than ever. They are seriously giving vent-free logs a challenge for best-selling product. There’s a long season yet to go, but that is very encouraging.” Wisconsin: (Hearth, BBQ) “It’s a busy season. We’re grateful for the milder temperatures.”
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A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
West
Arizona: (Hearth) “Lots of rain. Seems like we are getting winter a little early this year. That’s good for business.”
California: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “Year after year, September is a very predictable month. The numbers come out the same.”
California: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “So much better than last year. My sales tax has doubled for the month compared to last year. Looks like it should be a good season.”
Nevada: (Hearth, BBQ) “I’m not happy.”
Oregon: (Hearth) “Very good September sale. Fall weather is upon us.”
Washington: (Hearth, BBQ) “Super strong sales in hearth and grills. Customers showed up in droves and ready to buy. Looking forward to an excellent season!”
Washington: (Hearth) “Way up over last year!”
Canada
British Columbia: (Hearth) “Sales are down from last year, but only because last year was our best year ever.”
British Columbia: (Patio, BBQ) “Even though it’s our off-season, we had a very healthy increase for September. We’re very happy.”
New Brunswick: (Hearth, BBQ) “Best September in six years.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Great weather, good sales.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Sales up and down per month depending on evening temperatures, but generally the same as last year.”
Ontario: (Hearth, BBQ) “Less foot traffic, but no tire kickers, only serious buyers who purchased more expensive barbecues.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Another roller coaster month. Up on Tuesday, down on Thursday, Saturday saves the week … ahhhhhhh. Seems some suppliers are not ready; heaven forbid the season actually gels, we’ll be waiting ’till next year just to get product. Others seem right on the ball. “Our pellet fuel sales fell flat because our supplier decided to pick up everybody who asked, including Home Depot. Some of us have been trying desperately to create an industry, while others are just here to make a short-term buck. It’s a pity. We could have something real if everybody would just recognize it, and act accordingly. Now it’s just a wannabe industry with no real direction and no knowledgeable leader. Who will replace the Pugh family and guide us to the promised land?”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Steady as she goes!”
Stock Watch
| COMPANY – EXCHANGE | SYMBOL | 52 WEEK | Week Ending | % CHANGE | MARKET CAPITALIZATION | ||||
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| High | Low | 08-Aug-15 | 25-Sep-15 | 4 Week | 26 Week | 52 Week | ($000,000) | ||
| HNI Corporation (a) | HNI | 57.74 | 34.75 | 46.03 | 43.11 | -6.3% | -19.9% | 16.6% | $1,940.0 |
| Pool Corporation (b) | POOL | 74.74 | 51.61 | 68.45 | 72.76 | 6.3% | 5.2% | 33.6% | $3,170.0 |
| Rentech (b)(e) | RTK | 17.40 | 5.23 | 7.03 | 6.17 | -12.2% | 436.5% | NA | $125.9 |
| Restoration Hardware Holdings (a) | RH | 105.98 | 69.80 | 91.93 | 97.07 | 5.6% | 0.2% | 20.9% | $3,760.0 |
| Wayfair, Inc. (a)(c) | W | 56.84 | 16.74 | 42.22 | 36.00 | -14.7% | 11.4% | NA | $3,030.0 |
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(a) = New York Stock Exchange |
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