2014 October Business Climate
October Retail Sales
In early November, Hearth & Home faxed a survey to 2,400 specialty retailers of hearth, barbecue and patio products, asking them to compare October 2014 sales to October 2013. The accompanying charts and selected comments are from the 187 useable returns.
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Weather Report |
Consumer Confidence |
Stock Watch |
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Hearth retailers continue to have a stellar – perhaps historic – year with only 17 percent reporting that sales were down from last October. |
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13 MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAILER SALES |
For the fifth consecutive month, month/year vs. month/year were positive for all product categories (we can hear those cash registers ringing from here).
Retailer Comments
Northeast
Connecticut: “Things have slowed down compared to September but we are still up over last year. Strangest year ever and it’s not really cold yet. Looks like it will be our best year in business. Good – we were due. Pellets hard to come by though and even wood scarce. It figures! But we’re dealing with it.”
Delaware: “Have to go back to 2008 to find comparable numbers. Wood and pellet are king, but upper-end gas is moving as well.”
Massachusetts: “We definitely saw the outdoor products sales increase this year. It seemed that the seasons for these products lasted longer than previous years. This may be due to the Indian Summers we have on the Cape. Hearth sales have been great, but it seems customers are taking longer to pull the trigger. I don’t think they’ve hit that Panic Mode yet!”
Massachusetts: “Contract Sales! Early!”
Maine: “Great month. November is looking just as good.”
Maine: “Despite warm weather and falling heating oil prices, this fall has been very good to us. Sales are up in all categories of hearth appliances and service work is booming!”
Maine: “Whopper of an early winter storm in mid-coast Maine is driving sales and interest in back-up heat source.”
Maine: “We sell only gas, wood and pellet appliances and accessories. Cheaper oil, increase of price for pellets, Big Box stove sales, and more Chinese products being introduced in the marketplace all seem to have a – negative – affect on sales. The specialty shops that sell, and service what they sell, seem to have taken a back seat in importance.”
New Jersey: “Snow is on the way!”
New Jersey: “Awesome October, no surprise. Customers are very willing to spend money for quality products. Service work is a constant challenge but we’re ready and willing to handle it. No complaints.”
New York: “Very warm fall; oil dropping in price equated to slow October. Seems like the procrastinating buyers are waiting to see if we will get winter.”
New York: “Light traffic this month coming off a good September.”
New York: “Pellet stoves have been very strong, with wood and gas staying very steady.”
New York: “Brisk, brisk, brisk. We wish we had more pellets, but it’s always nice to do more business than usual and garnish customers from other companies who didn’t stock up.”
Pennsylvania: “Last year’s October was our best single month ever. This year was 12 percent greater than 2013. We’ve gravitated to the high-end and that customer has a lot of money to spend.”
Pennsylvania: “Sales are totally beyond expectations, but installs are behind due to lack of vent pipe, stove boards and accessories. Months out on venting is ridiculous.”
Pennsylvania: “Pellets are slow to arrive.” Pennsylvania: “Fireplaces are off to a great start thanks to last winter’s cold weather.”
Pennsylvania: “Pellet supply is starting to affect new stove sales. Why is it that you order your pellets on a pre-season order in March and you can’t get 30-40 percent of these orders that were accepted from the manufacturers? Who are they selling to? If sawdust is a problem then this should be told to dealers (no return phone calls!).”
Vermont: “Store traffic has died down some but we are still getting out product ordered in September and earlier in October, so we are busy. Service department is crazy busy. The fact that gas and home heating fuel is going down in price is not good for us. People have very short memories!”
Weather Report
For the following weather charts, the numbers for each state reflect the temperature ranking for the period since records began in 1895.
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October was a very hot month! Only 11 states reported Near Normal temperatures; the rest experienced Above Normal or Much Above Normal temperatures. |
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Both Washington and Oregon shattered temperature records in place for 120 years. |
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Tennessee, Kentucky and Missouri experienced Much Above Normal precipitation, while Nevada and Utah were Much Below Normal. |
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South
Arkansas: “Excellent retail sales for wood inserts and stoves. Old man winter is coming.”
Oklahoma: “For the first time in three years I can breathe. Great month for wood stove sales.”
Tennessee: “Traffic was OK, but they were not buying high-ticket items.”
Tennessee: “Three months in a row of RECORD sales. Surely, Obama and Washington won’t do anything real stupid to derail the economy.”
Virginia: “Started off busy, then died off due to weather the last 10 days or so. Mother Nature is still very confused. We need constant cold weather!”
Virginia: “Very good October.”
Midwest
Indiana: “Still have a long way to go to return to 2006 levels. There are still the Internet sales that have the sales tax advantage. I display, then the customer buys from the web.”
Iowa: “My baby’s gonna get new shoes!”
Michigan: “Hold on to your hats, looks like the start of another long, cold winter. We are enjoying an unbelievable hearth products season.” Michigan: “Wet summer delayed decks, patio and landscaping projects. The new backyard escape is in. Bring on the family fun with a brand new hot tub. The be-back bus from summer finally unloaded and the buyers came in. Fall pool sales were horrible. Thanks Mother Nature.”
Missouri: “We’re continuing with a strong year; sales are still holding steady even coming into colder weather.”
Ohio: “Gas hearth sales are literally off the charts. We’ve started turning away service on any products we didn’t sell. This has led to people begging me for service. I feel bad, but installing new products and taking care of existing customers has to be the priority.”
Ohio: “Great month, doubled last year’s October sales. Very concerned about availability of pellet vent pipe and wood pellets.”
Wisconsin: “October sales are down overall by 22.5 percent, but sales to date are up by 21.6 percent. We have not seen any real decline since last June 2013. No time off in spring as we usually see. Currently booking installs into January. Wonder what will happen once we get some snow?”
Wisconsin: “The pace of sales continues to blow away all old records. Strong mix of wood, gas and pellet.”
Wisconsin: “Yikes! So busy! It’s a challenge to stay on top of orders, products and schedules. We are grateful for awesome co-workers/employees.”
Wisconsin: “Have been in the hearth industry 24 years. Have never seen a year like this. Installs can’t keep up with sales. What a month.”
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A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
West
Arizona: “Getting closer to the winter season!”
California: “The season is shaping up nicely.”
California: “Manufacturer’s annual promotion (Regency) and new barbecue line (Green Mountain Grills) made a big difference. It’s still really warm here, no change in the weather yet.” Colorado: “Warm fall weather.”
Idaho: “October has been a great month. The pending change for screen implementation has had customers rushing to get their clean glass fireplaces while they still can.”
Oregon: “September and October have been good. Some new construction. Most are up-grading to newer units. Looking good for rest of the season.”
Washington: “Second highest month ever.”
Washington: “Busy month. Happy campers.”
Canada
Alberta: “October was extremely strong. Consumer confidence was great. A lot of our retail clients were looking for upper-end units. Our builder end was very strong as well. Builders that sent their clients in to select their fireplaces were also looking more upper-end and had no problem with spending the extra to get the extra!” British Columbia: “September and October were much softer than last year for hearth sales. Hoping for a strong November once it gets cold.”
British Columbia: “West Coast weather was fantastic in October and it reflected very well in our October sales of barbecues, fire tables and patio furniture.” Ontario: “Just ordered outdoor kitchens and a line of tailgate barbecues. Evolving our Patio selection.”
Ontario: “Very good October.”
Ontario: “Doing much more chimney repair rather than new installations. Propane sales down significantly. Wood still strong. People are making do with what they have.”
Ontario: “Desire is up, consumer confidence is up, outlook is up, manufacturer readiness is down. The only thing holding up the profit this year is the myopic vision of manufacturers’.”
Stock Watch
| COMPANY – EXCHANGE | SYMBOL | 52 WEEK | Week Ending | % CHANGE | MARKET CAPITALIZATION | ||||
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| High | Low | 03-Oct-14 | 31-Oct-14 | 4 Week | 26 Week | 52 Week | ($000,000) | ||
| HNI Corporation (a) | HNI | 47.50 | 31.00 | 36.14 | 46.65 | 29.1% | 33.1% | 21.4% | $2,059.0 |
| Pool Corporation (b) | POOL | 62.84 | 51.61 | 54.78 | 59.70 | 9.0% | 2.4% | 10.2% | $2,590.0 |
| Restoration Hardware Holdings (a) | RH | 94.50 | 54.61 | 82.00 | 80.32 | -2.0% | 26.8% | 17.1% | $3,170.0 |
| Wayfair, Inc. (a)(c) | W | 39.43 | 22.56 | 32.18 | 25.10 | -22% | NA | NA | $2,080.0 |
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(a) = New York Stock Exchange |
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