2014 September Business Climate
September Retail Sales
In early October, Hearth & Home faxed a survey to 2,400 specialty retailers of hearth, barbecue and patio products, asking them to compare September 2014 sales to September 2013. The accompanying charts and selected comments are from the 193 useable returns.
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Weather Report |
Consumer Confidence |
Stock Watch |
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Hearth products continue to lead the way with 74 percent of retailers reporting that sales were up. At the lower end, only 23 percent of barbecue dealers said that sales were up. |
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13 MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAILER SALES |
For the fourth consecutive month, month/year vs. month/year sales were positive for all product categories.
Retailer Comments
Northeast
Connecticut: “Great start here in Connecticut. We have great foot traffic and the phone calls are coming in non-stop. Good sign for upcoming season.”
Connecticut: “Crazy busy. Up 73 percent year-to-date. Pellet stoves flying out the door, wood stoves follow then gas and coal. Hope supply doesn’t dry up. Blew through early-buy in August/September.”
Massachusetts: “We had a great August due to the tax-free weekend in Massachusetts. As a result, September is usually a slower month. But sales this year were up, I think due to people planning ahead for storms like last years!”
Massachusetts: “We have seen a growth in sales over previous years. Wood, gas and pellet stoves and inserts are all selling here in New England as an alternative heat source. Oil and gas prices are making consumers want another option.”
Maine: “We sell and service heating appliances. September is always our best month of the year. With all the new competitors – Big Boxes, oil companies, on-line purchases – we were surprised we did this well though it’s only a four percent increase from last year and last year was a low year.” Maine: “Pellet sales are very strong this fall. Between people upgrading and new sales, we’re hoping the trend continues!”
New Hampshire: “Pellet stove and insert sales leading the way! Concerned about supply of pellets vs. demand again. Think there are more pellet manufacturers than car manufacturers. Local pellet supplier in New Hampshire, whom hearth dealers helped to build their business, have taken our P.O’s and say they can’t honor them because of their big guy.”
New Jersey: “Waiting on snow!”
New Jersey: “A very positive outlook! Builders are busy. Showroom is ready and steady.”
New York: “Pellet stoves are selling like crazy, but where are the pellets? Are we going to shoot the golden goose?”
New York: “Perfect September weather led to a very strong finish to a solid patio season.”
New York: “Pellet is leading the way, but gas and wood are still doing well. Hot tubs are strong also with a good price mix ranging from $3,000 - $4,000.”
Pennsylvania: “Pellet fuel already in short supply.”
Pennsylvania: “July and August were as good as any October and November. Everyone is buying early due to last winter. Pray for another one!”
Pennsylvania: “What a great month! Cool weather following a brutal winter. Folks are spending again. Pellets are hot. We are booked out six weeks. Woo hah!”
Pennsylvania: “Fewer people buying, but larger tickets on the sales made.”
Pennsylvania: “Gas products are now out-performing wood and pellet products 10-to-one. Service again has almost doubled from same time last year. Outdoor products are slowing as customers now are concentrating on alternate heat sources for their homes for the upcoming winter. “Disturbing news the other day concerning the purchase of the Vermont Castings Group by Hearth & Home Technologies. Why would our industry give the lion’s share of the builder’s trade to one corporation? Why would Hearth & Home Technologies buy a major manufacturer of vent-free products when it has nothing but utter contempt for those products! It will be interesting to see, in the coming year, how many representatives, installing distributors, distributors and dealers are hung out to dry. That might even include the Vent-free Gas Products Alliance. There is more here than what meets the eye.”
Vermont: “Another strong month with orders spread evenly between wood, gas and pellet. For the first time ever, cordwood is in short supply and expensive, $300 a cord. Pellets may be a supply issue, too. Will it hurt sales?”
Weather Report
For the following weather charts, the numbers for each state reflect the temperature ranking for the period since records began in 1895.
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It was hot out west! California, Nevada and Utah experienced much above normal temperatures, while only Illinois and Indiana were below normal. |
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Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, California and Florida experienced a long-lasting heat wave that approached record temperatures. |
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Precipitation was much above normal in Utah, Arizona and New Mexico, and much below normal cross-country in New England. |
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South
Arkansas: “Strong sales for wood inserts despite warm temperatures. People are preparing for a tough winter.”
Louisiana: “Not sure why sales have dropped. Could be all the rain we’ve had this month.”
Oklahoma: “Best September on record!”
South Carolina: “Our August was down just a little but September was great. We have had a better selling season overall.”
North Carolina: “Trying to maintain momentum from a very strong sales year. Hoping the customers still have some spending power.”
Tennessee: “Steady traffic. Every customer purchase now seems well researched, thought out, and a proven value. The new shopper is extremely educated.”
Tennessee: “WOW! Another record month. Almost scary. Don’t pinch me, I might wake up.”
Texas: “Big pellet stove and pellet insert month compared to the Septembers of the past three years, but all categories are up. The general attitude of customers is that they’re expecting it to be another cold winter.”
Virginia: “Wow! What a September. This was one to remember – $ ka-ching.”
Midwest
Indiana: “Sales were up, but back order of product has pushed sold jobs to October. Pipeline is moving slowly.”
Iowa: “September down due to install timing. Second half of September showed great potential for this fall and orders are up from 2013 substantially.”
Indiana: “Best September on record for hearth sales!”
Michigan: “When dealers say up 30-35-40 percent it means nothing. Up over what? We saw a big sales jump. Buyers from July and August finally got patios and decks done. Huge building delays this year because of cool rainy spring and summer and lack of good contractors. Expecting good sales in fall up to election in November. Weather has been absolutely incredible. It’s amazing the effect it has on business. Great magazine, keep up the good work.”
Michigan: “We are very encouraged by the sales in Michigan this season. It looks like we will have a record year. Up 28 percent so far this year over last year’s results. The hearth season is off to a great start. We have three stores in Michigan and are excited about the season.”
Michigan: “Do to high inventory at Box stores, customers are seeking more value price-point (under $399) grills. We are a retailer of mid- to high-end grills and outdoor kitchens that focus on quality of the purchase instead of loss leader turnover.”
Missouri: “Hot tub sales are up and looking good. Our barbecue rubs and sauces are up. Big Green Egg is up while other grills and smokers are down. We will have a good year.”
Missouri: “Sales are right on course with last year and I had a stellar year in 2013. Sales were up approximately 68 percent in 2013 and 2014 is keeping pace so far, but quickly increasing as we are getting deeper into the hearth season. “The rush started about a month early for me this year, but I have had to fight a lot of inclement weather in September, which will make my October invoices (weather pending) look a lot better than 2013’s year-to-date invoices. We have also recently acquired a chimney sweep and will be starting those services this month, which will bring the end-of-year totals way up.”
Ohio: “I would like to say Thank You to the people at Old Farmer’s Almanac. They have everyone believing that this winter is going to be worse than last year. Whether it is or not, our sales are on pace to beat every sales record we’ve ever had.”
Ohio: “Great start to the season. Top five stove sale months of all time. Burned out five weeks on installs, two-three weeks on service. Fuel sales up 60 percent. Bring on the cold.”
Wisconsin: “The busy season has been here for 14 months. Strong sales across all categories, wood, gas, pellet and electric. Fifty-nine days below zero last winter seems to have had an impact on sales.”
Wisconsin: “Busy month! This month is down a bit. Total sales to-date are 25 percent ahead of last year.”
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A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company.
West
Arizona: “Busy, Busy, Busy! Winter is coming early this year!”
California: “The stove sales are picking up and people are looking. Barbecues are down and so are accessories. My spa sales are up because I actually sold a spa. We have been averaging one per year since 2010. This year we have already sold two, yippee!! “Total sales are down 27 percent, not sure what to order or if I should even order anything. Really hurts when you order an accessory for a stove that is listed in their brochure but have a 21-day lead time. Why even have the option? I can see if it were a custom-made item, but a rim piece, not sure why this is not stocked.”
California: “Sales are brisk, installs out five weeks. Hot Indian summer not hurting sales.”
California: “The best September we have ever had and October is off to a great start.”
Colorado: “Sales are about the same as last year, but we are discounting LESS! September was on and off busy. Feast or famine.”
Colorado: “Early birds definitely taking advantage of pre-winter sales and service. It’s great keeping our service people jamming before the season really kicks!”
Idaho: “Strong early season start.” Washington: “Nice sales to end the season.”
Washington: “We had a nice bump in sales over last September. I think continued nice weather had a lot to do with it.”
Canada
Arizona: “Busy, Busy, Busy! Winter is coming early this year!”
California: “The stove sales are picking up and people are looking. Barbecues are down and so are accessories. My spa sales are up because I actually sold a spa. We have been averaging one per year since 2010. This year we have already sold two, yippee!! “Total sales are down 27 percent, not sure what to order or if I should even order anything. Really hurts when you order an accessory for a stove that is listed in their brochure but have a 21-day lead time. Why even have the option? I can see if it were a custom-made item, but a rim piece, not sure why this is not stocked.”
California: “Sales are brisk, installs out five weeks. Hot Indian summer not hurting sales.”
California: “The best September we have ever had and October is off to a great start.”
Colorado: “Sales are about the same as last year, but we are discounting LESS! September was on and off busy. Feast or famine.”
Colorado: “Early birds definitely taking advantage of pre-winter sales and service. It’s great keeping our service people jamming before the season really kicks!”
Idaho: “Strong early season start.” Washington: “Nice sales to end the season.”
Washington: “We had a nice bump in sales over last September. I think continued nice weather had a lot to do with it.”
Stock Watch
| COMPANY – EXCHANGE | SYMBOL | 52 WEEK | Week Ending | % CHANGE | MARKET CAPITALIZATION | ||||
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| High | Low | 29-Aug-15 | 26-Sept-15 | 4 Week | 26 Week | 52 Week | ($000,000) | ||
| HNI Corporation (a) | HNI | 40.43 | 31.00 | 37.91 | 36.98 | -2.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | $1,662.3 |
| Pool Corporation (b) | POOL | 62.84 | 50.58 | 56.55 | 54.47 | -3.7% | -9.6% | -3.2% | $2,399.9 |
| Restoration Hardware Holdings (a) | RH | 94.50 | 54.61 | 83.87 | 80.31 | -4.2% | 11.7% | 22.6% | $3,172.2 |
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(a) = New York Stock Exchange |
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