2016 January Business Climate
January Sales
In early February, Hearth & Home faxed a survey to 2,400 specialty retailers of hearth, barbecue and patio products, asking them to compare January 2016 sales to January 2015. The accompanying charts and selected comments are from the 210 useable returns.
Quick Links |
||
|
Weather Report |
Consumer Confidence |
Stock Watch |
RETAILER SALES – U.S. AND CANADA |
 |
|
|
In January, hearth dealers had the greatest percentage of Retailers Up (36%) among the four industries tracked, as well as the greatest percentage of Retailers Down (47%). |
|
13 MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAILER SALES |
Weather controls sales. In a month that should have belonged to hearth products, that category plummeted by six percent for the second month in a row. For the third month in a row, sales of patio furnishings exceeded those of the prior year, this time by a whopping 22 percent.
Retailer Comments
Northeast
Maine: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Past holiday consumer hangover should abate soon. Gas is leading with sluggish wood and zero pellet sales. The continued drop in oil prices is bound to have a negative affect.”
Maryland: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Slow foot traffic and a blizzard. Can’t give pellets away this year; they are for sale everywhere.”
New Hampshire: (Hearth) “Certainly, low-cost oil and propane are hurting the alternative fuels and appliance business. But having survived the poor business trends that accompanied 11 previous presidential campaigns, I’ll most likely survive this one.”
New Jersey: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Continued growth, very positive outlook. Thank you!”
New York: (BBQ, Spas) “Very slow month compared to 2015.”
New York: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “With little snow on the ground and not a cold January up here in Northern New York, surprisingly our sales were up to start 2016.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth) “Praying for a miracle. No winter, cheap oil and factories are announcing price increases. May they rest in peace!”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, BBQ) “January sales were steady compared to December being slow.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth) “Only gas fireplaces and inserts were up. All other product lines were down.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Spas) “Gasoline, heating oil, propane and natural gas costs are all down to the consumer. Yet most businesses here are super slow with few shoppers. We always blamed the high cost of gasoline for people not out and about. Now what is holding the consumer from spending? Coal, wood and pellet prices have not fallen. These appliances may be history.”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Finally, some cold weather and some strong sales in gas and wood products. Floor traffic is steady and cheap pricing from the Internet does not mix well with brick and mortar! Service is still very strong.”
Weather Report
For the following weather charts, the numbers for each state reflect the temperature ranking for the period since records began in 1895.
 |
|
|
In January, 21 states primarily in the snowbelt experienced Above Normal temperatures, while one state, Maine, reached Much Above Normal temperatures. |
|
 |
|
For the three-month period November 2015 through January 2016, not one state had temperatures Below Normal, six states had temperatures that were Near Normal, and the other 42 states enjoyed (?) Above Normal, Much Above Normal and Record Warmest weather. Little wonder that outdoor products did well during that period. |
|
 |
|
Caption. Caption. Caption. |
|
South
Arkansas: (Hearth) “Not a good start for a new year. Old man weather was too warm for hearth sales.”
Florida: (Patio) “Traffic down, larger sales.”
Florida: (Hearth, BBQ) “Good month. Weather changed and service calls went crazy. Could use more help from manufacturers with parts and warranty.”
Mississippi: (Patio) “Very slow traffic. We had one really large sale that made up 75 percent of our sales for the whole month.”
North Carolina: (Patio) “Not great traffic count, but enough of the right clientele.”
Oklahoma: (Hearth) “Thanks for a warm fall Mr. El Nino!”
Texas: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “The mild weather has got customers thinking about their outdoor areas earlier this year. We have both individuals and contractors coming in to look at equipment for their outdoor living areas, much more than in past years.”
Virginia: (Hearth, BBQ) “Thanks to Mother Nature it got cold in January with snow. Woo-hoo, still counting the customers and money.”
Virginia: (Hearth, BBQ) “Was surprised to see sales down that much since we are still seeing traffic. But I really think the weather got people thinking about what to do for next year.”
Midwest
Indiana: (Hearth, Patio) “Warmer than normal. Market has buyers on edge. Holding off purchases.”
Michigan: (Hearth, Spas) “It’s been an extremely slow January, wood and pellet are way off the mark. We have been advertising gas and I have had some success with lower gas prices. Spas/Hot Tubs are dead in the water.”
Michigan: (Hearth, BBQ) “Busy traffic – wood inserts, gas logs and gas inserts.”
Michigan: (Hearth, Patio) “Very slow. Too warm.”
Michigan: (Spas) “Warmer weather, little snow; 180-degrees difference from Artic Polar 2015. Aggressive advertising combined with huge 2015 end-of-year sale and even our laid-back, high-winded competitors came to the table with ad campaigns. Lots of traffic for January – hot tubs, spas and game tables – couldn’t ask for a better start of the year. The thing we’re most proud of is a 70 percent closing ratio – no joke. Love the collection of brochures and business cards from competitors we accumulated. Oh, what a feeling – rock on – feeling good.”
Minnesota: (Hearth, BBQ) “What happened? The well run dry? Zip, zero, nada. Some service and parts are all we got for the entire month.”
Ohio: (Hearth) “Weather conditions unusually warm.”
Ohio: (Hearth) “The warmer weather has really had a negative effect on hearth sales. While we have been selling larger, home-value-type products like direct-vent inserts, the bread and butter sales like gas logs and fireplace doors have really been off. Not sure if colder weather at this point helps hearth sales or just hurts an early start to barbecue season.”
Wisconsin: (Hearth, BBQ) “Hearth products are selling, wood and gas. Pellet is dead. LP at 64 cents a gallon. Nice and steady. Traffic in store good. Some snow but not cold. February getting cold and snow.”
Wisconsin: (Hearth) “Lower LP price definitely having an affect.”
Wisconsin: (Hearth) “None in stock, feeling good.”
Wisconsin: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “Typical odd year where January sales were way up over last year. Next year January will be down and so on. Sales traffic has been good, and jobs are coming in steady. Recent snowfall will help promote sales into March. Then the home shows start.”
Wisconsin: (Hearth, BBQ) “Great month! A fair number of installs and service calls booked. Found a good additional employee that we are training. Grateful for the business we have.”
|
|
A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company. |
West
Arizona: (Hearth) “Lots of people starting the New Year with a new appliance and investing their tax money.”
Colorado: (Hearth) “Not as ‘up’ as last month, but still ‘up’ and we’ll take it! A blizzard first week of February slowed things down. Snow doesn’t help, but cold does, and it was minus four this morning.”
Washington: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “January weather warmed up. We caught up on installs very fast.”
Canada
British Columbia: (Patio, BBQ) “Sales were down from January 2015, but higher than January 2014.”
British Columbia: (Hearth) “A few bigger sales propelled this January. Pellet servicing was down.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “January, January. Did 90 percent of January sales in week two. Looked real promising, strange how looks can be deceitful. One must remember, this is the hearth business, not gauged by day-to-day sales, but rather lifetime achievement. Don’t believe it? Do a 10-year sales graph by monthly sales and tell me different. “This winter just has all the plays, warm temps (plus nine Celsius today), low fuel costs (oil under 80 cents a liter), uncertain economy (no more oil patch jobs), low dollar (under 75 cents), and lots of newer dealers (counted four new ones this year within 15 miles). Good thing we have lots of stoves and plenty of pellet fuel. Any other way would just be boring.”
Ontario: (Hearth) “January felt slow. Regular flow of floor traffic seemed down. Feeling rather skeptical about retro markets versus new builds. Some economy we’re in!”
Ontario: (BBQ) “The weather is the pits!”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Not too shabby considering two snow days.”
Ontario: (Patio) “Weather good – sales should be up but they’re not. Seasonal nature of business in our area I guess.”
Ontario: (Hearth, BBQ) “Wet and very mild November and December; January started slow and got a bit better. Still much lower than last year.”
Quebec: (Hearth) “Slower than last year. Mostly sweeps and sales in last week of January. We close for February and March every winter for lack of work. I have to put my staff on unemployment insurance.”
Stock Watch
| COMPANY – EXCHANGE | SYMBOL | 52 WEEK | Week Ending | % CHANGE | MARKET CAPITALIZATION | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Low | 31-DEC-15 | 29-JAN-16 | 4 WEEK | 26 WEEK | 52 WEEK | ($000,000) | ||
| HNI Corporation (a) | HNI | 57.74 | 29.84 | 36.06 | 34.02 | -5.7% | -31.4% | -30.9% | $1,590.0 |
| Pool Corporation (b) | POOL | 84.53 | 63.15 | 80.78 | 84.50 | 4.6% | 20.0% | 35.8% | $3,290.0 |
| Rentech (b)(e) | RTK | 14.40 | 1.66 | 3.52 | 1.95 | -44.6% | 156.1% | 62.5% | $40.2 |
| Restoration Hardware Holdings (a) | RH | 106.49 | 49.40 | 79.45 | 61.62 | -22.4% | -39.3% | -29.6% | $2,060.0 |
| Wayfair, Inc. (a) | W | 59.84 | 20.28 | 47.62 | 45.20 | -5.1% | 21.1% | 131.1% | $2,680.0 |
|
(a) = New York Stock Exchange |
|||||||||
