2016 February Business Climate
February Sales
In early March, Hearth & Home faxed a survey to 2,300 specialty retailers of hearth, barbecue and patio products, asking them to compare February 2016 sales to February 2015. The accompanying charts and selected comments are from the 212 useable returns.
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Weather Report |
Consumer Confidence |
Stock Watch |
RETAILER SALES – U.S. AND CANADA |
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In February, 93 percent of Patio specialty retailers were Up or the Same compared to the prior month-year, while only 54 percent of Hearth specialty retailers could say the same. |
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13 MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR RETAILER SALES |
For the fourth month in a row, sales of Patio furnishings in the specialty retail channel were up substantially over the prior year; in February, they were up a strong 23 percent.
Retailer Comments
Northeast
Connecticut: (Hearth) “Low price of oil, and warm weather, in the Northeast.That’s a formula for disaster. Nothing else to say!”
Connecticut: (Hearth) “A lot of early new construction due to mild weather.” Maine: (Hearth) “Warm weather and fuel prices are not creating any urgency to start new construction projects.”
Maine: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Sizeable renovations in residential and lodging sectors are boosting sales with gas fireplaces leading.”
New Hampshire: (Patio, BBQ, Spas) “Less snow. Store was actually open.”
New Jersey: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Great February! Expecting a slowdown in March. Could be wrong. Always ready for growth!”
Pennsylvania: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “With this weather, the customers don’t know if they should buy hearth products or patio and barbecues.”
Weather Report
For the following weather charts, the numbers for each state reflect the temperature ranking for the period since records began in 1895.
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In February, only five southern states experienced weather that was Near Normal. All the other states in the contiguous U.S. were at Above Normal or Much Above Normal levels. |
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For the three-month period from December 2015 through February 2016, only Nevada and Utah were at Near Normal levels, while the rest of the country experienced Above Normal and Much Above Normal, with Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island posting Record Warmest temperatures. |
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During the month of February, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and New York experienced Much Above Normal precipitation. |
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South
Arkansas: (Hearth) “Another slow month for hearth retail sales. Just cannot get going this year – must be an election year.”
Oklahoma: (Hearth) “Sales were up but not as good as January!”
Tennessee: (Hearth, BBQ) “Not a very good month, needed more winter.”
Texas: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “The nice weather in February has got customers outside and starting to look to this summer much earlier than normal. Lots of interest and planning for outdoor living areas; looks to be a great spring.”
Virginia: (Hearth, BBQ) “This month started off good, then just stopped.”
Midwest
Indiana: (Hearth) “Even though sales were down 24 percent over last year, we were slightly above a normal February.”
Iowa: (Hearth, BBQ) “The interest in hearth products has not changed. The decision to purchase has sharply decreased. I think our country is afraid. Just afraid!”
Michigan: (Hearth, BBQ) “New construction. Busy traffic. Remodels busy. Grill traffic slow even at 30 percent off.”
Minnesota: (Hearth, BBQ) “Sales are dead.”
Ohio: (Hearth, BBQ) “All of the bread and butter hearth products have been non- existent. Thankfully, home value items like direct-vent inserts and reface projects have been strong. We’ve had to cut the part-time staff hours to help compensate for the lack of cash flow. This time of year is never fun.”
Wisconsin: (Hearth, BBQ) “Found an additional good employee. Even with the training and time, we are able to complete additional work. We increased sales for the month. We have a significant number of jobs lined up for the upcoming months, too.”
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A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company. The Index is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company. |
West
California: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “With the weather being so nice in Northern California, we actually sold barbecue items in February! Hope that the sales keep going up!”
Utah: (Patio) “Nice weather in February.”
Washington: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spa) “Warm and slower.”
Canada
British Columbia: (Hearth) “Minimal interest in February. Interest dropped off as it has been warmer than normal. The few people looking were looking for bargains.”
Newfoundland: (Hearth) “2016 February sales are strong and a pleasant surprise. The economy in our area is going through a serious downturn, so we are lucky. Both wood and propane are strong. Interest in electric for young families doing renovations.”
Ontario: (Hearth, BBQ) “November and December were terrible. February was just as bad. March most likely will not be any better.”
Ontario: (Patio) “Slow winter. High Canadian dollar really hurting as we have to buy virtually everything in U.S. funds.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ) “Up 20 percent over last February. Some of the folks who should have been here in December finally decided winter was coming. Service/parts department leads the profit gang for the fifth straight month. Parts and service used to be a money loser; today it is the strongest, most reliable sector in our building. All this up and down has me in great shape for the spring.”
Ontario: (Hearth, Patio, BBQ, Spas) “The bottom seems to have just fallen out of everything this year! Sure hope it turns around soon. Not a great fall season either, very sporadic. Just way too warm for fireplaces and stoves, wood or gas. Been in this business 33 years now; this year has been a bad one.”
Stock Watch
| COMPANY – EXCHANGE | SYMBOL | 52 WEEK | Week Ending | % CHANGE | MARKET CAPITALIZATION | ||||
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| High | Low | 29-JAN-16 | 26-FEB-16 | 4 WEEK | 26 WEEK | 52 WEEK | ($000,000) | ||
| HNI Corporation (a) | HNI | 57.74 | 29.87 | 34.02 | 33.64 | -1.1% | -26.9% | -34.0% | $1,490.0 |
| Pool Corporation (b) | POOL | 84.53 | 64.50 | 84.50 | 81.83 | -3.2% | 19.5% | 18.3% | $3,370.0 |
| Rentech (b)(e) | RTK | 13.80 | 1.55 | 1.95 | 1.97 | 1.0% | -72.0% | 43.8% | $46.7 |
| Restoration Hardware Holdings (a) | RH | 106.49 | 37.00 | 61.62 | 40.43 | -34.4% | -56.0% | -54.1% | $1,640.0 |
| Wayfair, Inc. (a) | W | 56.84 | 21.93 | 45.20 | 41.29 | -8.7% | -2.2% | 76.8% | $3,470.0 |
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(a) = New York Stock Exchange |
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