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Old Man Winter Takes a Bite Out of Starts

Monday, March 23, 2015

Breaking its five-month string of headline starts above the one-million mark, housing starts plunged a sharp 17 percent in February, marking the largest monthly decline since February 2011. Single-family starts fell almost 15 percent and multifamily starts declined 20.8 percent during the month.

The only silver lining in the report was the increase in permits. Housing permits increased 3.0 percent in February, with all of the gain concentrated in multifamily. Multifamily permits were up 18.3 percent in February, while single-family fell for the second consecutive month. Is this the beginning of a troubling trend or just an anomaly due to weather effects?

Major Snowstorm Takes a Toll
Weather most likely played a large role in the significant monthly drop. Looking at starts on a regional basis, activity in the Northeast dropped a whopping 56.5 percent and starts in the Midwest were down a solid 37.0 percent. Based on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), which scores snowstorms by the amount of snow and the number of people living in the path of the storm, February had two major storms, of which one (January 29–February 3) was ranked in the top third of all high-impact snowstorms dating back to 1956. 

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