If you love volatility – whether you’re a retailer or a manufacturer – you’ll love the pellet-stove business. In 2014, shipments of pellet appliances increased by 64 percent over the prior year. In 2015, shipments of pellet appliances tumbled by 31 percent, continuing their erratic progression through the years – up one year, then down the next, or the next.

A can of worms was opened at the Pellet Fuels Institute breakfast during the recent HPBExpo when newcomers to the association, Kate Fritz, director of Membership, Affiliates and Market Research, and Cameron Downs, new manager of Market Research, told the audience that 71,000 pellet appliances were shipped in 2015 in the U.S., and 10,000 units were shipped in Canada. Estimates of the 2015 U.S. shipments by the very knowledgeable and skeptical audience ranged from 45,000 to 47,000 units in the U.S.

When Fritz and Downs later investigated the HPBA’s manufacturers’ shipment numbers, they discovered that the 2014 numbers were “grossly inaccurate.” After their research, the 2014 U.S. shipments of pellet stoves and inserts were revised to 88,506, a 64 percent increase over 2013, and the 2015 U.S. totals were 61,399, a decline of 31 percent.

The unpredictability of the category continues.

The revised Canadian pellet appliance shipments revealed a different scenario, up 79 percent in 2014 and up another four percent in 2015 to 9,787 units. But even with the revised number crunching, it’s obvious that 2015 was not a good year for pellet appliances, at least in the U.S.

Hearth retailers also suffered in 2015. One of North America’s largest pellet fuel and stove retailers, Earth Sense Energy Systems in Dale, Wisconsin, was down 35 percent in its pellet appliance sales.

“We’re hoping for something to happen to oil and propane prices to get things back on track,” said Jed Martin, company president.

Pellet stove sales have been “very, very quiet, but we’re optimistic,” said Don Ferry, owner of Buy The Fire, an Oxford, Maine, hearth retailer.

Enviro’s P4 pellet stove.

“Our pellet stove sales to our distributors were actually up five percent last year,” according to Stuart O’Connor, vice president of Sherwood Industries, manufacturer of the Enviro brand, “but distributor sales to their dealers were down quite a bit, with our East Coast customers being the hardest hit.”

O’Connor says Sherwood’s gas appliance sales were up even more, and he speculates that with heating fuel prices still down, more consumers are moving from pellets and wood to gas. “We are concerned that distributors and dealers still have a lot of unsold carryover pellet stove inventory,” he said.

From January to May, 2016, crude oil prices rose 45 percent, from $33 to $48 per barrel, according to O’Connor. He expects oil prices to be up by another 25 percent, to $62 per barrel, by year’s end.

Sherwood continues to sell mostly traditional-styled pellet models, even after recently introducing its P3 and P4 contemporary units. “Dealers like contemporary, but the consumers are not yet on board,” he said. “They get excited by contemporary models, but they still purchase traditional by a high percentage.”

O’Connor sees pellet stove technology moving more toward integrating the consumer with their stove through technology such as smartphones. “Touch screen controls will become more popular,” he said, and that’s a feature Sherwood plans to offer later this year.

Hearth & Home Technologies’ (HHT) Jeni Forman, senior vice president of Dealer Sales, said HHT had a “good 2015, but not a great year, down slightly” in sales of pellet stoves and inserts in its Harman, QuadraFire, PelPro and Heat & Glo Eco-Choice brands. “It was a difficult year after a phenomenal 2014. With no big storms and exceptionally low fuel prices, there was not much to trigger consumer demand.

“This year started slower than anticipated, but it’s not too bad in a market that is still struggling,” she said. “We’re confident that this season will be good, but not great.” With heating oil prices at $1.50 a gallon early in the summer, Forman says it will take $3 a gallon for the consumer to see payback and begin to react. She also says HHT is not seeing big inventory carryover with its customers; most are in good inventory positions.

HHT is seeing more European-styled pellet stoves on dealers’ floors, but the company is waiting to see if those models sell through.

Harman’s Allure 50 pellet stove, launching in Q4 2016.

“Dealers like to offer multiple looks,” said John Shimek, HHT’s senior vice president of Product Development, “but there are pros and cons with these models, such as smaller hopper sizes requiring more frequent fuel fillings. Consumers are still choosing the traditional-styled models.” In August, HHT will introduce its version, the Harman Allure 50, a transitional-styled, more contemporary pellet stove.

“With the market down, we’re not seeing the consumer asking for new things,” said Shimek. “But we’re developing more modern controls, making it easier for the consumer to interface with his stove for controls, information, troubleshooting and maintenance. We’re trying to bring in a broader audience by making it easier for him and her to operate their stove. We’re still very excited about the pellet-stove market. We have a passion for it, so we’re continuing to develop new technologies and products.”

“We had an iffy start to this year,” adds Forman, “but we’re confident the market will come back. Fuel prices are the key, and bad weather will help, but we’re optimistic about Q3 and Q4.”

Sales in 2015 of the St. Croix brand of pellet stoves and inserts from Even Temp Distributing were “terrible,” according to Bob Robinson, Sales manager. Sales were down 15 percent after a 40 percent increase in 2014. But 2016 sales are up 15 percent so far.

“Midwest pellet stove sales have gone away,” said Robinson. “We’re a firm believer in pellet stoves and think they will find a firmer place in our industry. We’re betting on pellet and wood stoves to see an upward trend this year, even with today’s low propane prices.”

Robinson says his European-styled models are doing well with the St. Croix Element and Eclipse stoves, and the Piazzetta models Even Temp distributes. “Consumers identify this tall and narrow European styling as having better quality,” he said. “Models like the Piazzetta have forced American manufacturers to step up their game. Now everyone is offering that look.”

Robinson also is seeing more interest in corn burning now that corn prices are dropping. St. Croix corn burners and multi-fuel models have been tested to emissions levels as low as 1.5 gph on corn.

Also doing well with European-styled pellet stoves is Ravelli USA, a division of Ravelli, the Italian-based, world’s largest pellet stove manufacturer.

“We grew last year, but not as much as we had hoped,” said Andrew Lagana, CEO of the North American effort. “But for us, it was a positive season, particularly in New England and New York.”

Lagana says the European look enjoyed greater acceptance last year than in previous years, by both dealers and consumers. “In the past, our models from Italy were too modern for the North American market,” he said. “Now we are offering designs made especially for North America.”

Roma pellet fireplace insert from Ravelli.

New from Ravelli is its Roma pellet fireplace insert, a cast-iron, high-efficiency insert that installs in the fireplace on attached rails for easy “roll out” to service the unit.

Pacific Energy Fireplace Products is also in the European-styled pellet stove market as North American distributor for Piazzetta, another huge Italian manufacturer.

“Women dominate the buying decision,” according to Shannon Sears, general manager, “and they see the Piazzetta product as beautiful furniture. As an example, although we offer black enamel, 90 percent of our Piazzetta sales are in our many colors. And as more consumers are attracted to technology, they like the Piazzetta’s ability to be operated and controlled by a thermostat.”

Besides the high-end Piazzetta line, Pacific Energy also has recently introduced its value priced True North models and its mid-priced Pacific Energy and Alderlea lines, totaling six pellet models of stoves and inserts. In the Piazzetta line, a new model this year actually mounts on the wall with only nine in. of depth from the walwl to the front of the unit. “This model has really swept Europe,” said Sears.

Pacific Energy is forecasting a “soft” year for the pellet stove industry overall, “but the Piazzetta line is growing with more dealers taking it on.”

Predicting sales of pellet appliances is a difficult task.

United States Stove Company had a “soft” pellet stove sales year, according to Jim Pitchford, director of Sales. “After our original sales forecast, we adjusted it down late in the fall. But we actually ended the year very close to that original forecast. Because of the late arriving winter, we are seeing carryover inventory with our customers.”

Even so, orders so far in 2016 have been “fairly good,” and Pitchford is optimistic that 2016 will be a good sales year. “Seldom are there two non-winters in a row,” he said.

In the United States Stove line, two new, smaller, traditional, 48,000 Btu pellet stoves have been introduced. In its Breckwell line, two new, higher-priced, enameled, cast-iron models, the SPC 50 and the SPC 4000, are available in black, mahogany and red enamel colors.

The Wise Way pellet model, a Vesta winner that doesn’t have motors or blowers, and doesn’t require electric power, was purchased last year by United States Stove Company. That model, the GW 1949, remains the same with only production improvements.

The company is working on a “dressier” version for its Breckwell line. Pitchford says the Wise Way has had good dealer and consumer response as did the company’s 4849, a wall-mounted, powered pellet stove. The company is looking at electronic upgrades for 2017.

As the pellet industry continues on its erratic path, all are hopeful that the weather and heating fuel prices will cooperate this year to move the sales momentum back up. Most are looking for a good, but not great, pellet stove year in 2016.